Objectives

The objective of Subproject 2 of EUNOMIA is to inform, design and implement sustainable groundwater management policies that build resilience to socioeconomic and environmental change while enabling equitable and sustainable development.

General activities

The Subproject 2 of EUNOMIA (“Socioecological ensemble forecasting using remote sensing data for sustainable and resilient groundwater management under uncertainty”) will develop socioecological forecasting models that represent human interactions at the local to global level, endogenize these processes into water system models, and quantify related uncertainties (input, parameter and structural uncertainties), to be able to consistently and repeatably forecast the socioeconomic and environmental impacts of groundwater management policies.

The simulation outcomes resulting from the integration of remote sensing-based water use data (Subproject 1) into the socioecological modeling suite (Subproject 2) will be used to train emulators leveraging artificial intelligence algorithms, thus allowing for rapid simulations that can prompt policy assessment by stakeholders without the intermediation of scientists. The resultant ‘actionable groundwater management tool’ will be used to inform policy-relevant discussions among decision makers, water users and other relevant stakeholders, and spur the co-creation of sustainable groundwater management tools that enhance resilience. The methods above will be tested in 2 living labs: La Mancha Oriental Aquifer in the Júcar River Basin and the Arenales Aquifer in the Douro River Basin.

Expected results

EUNOMIA will contribute to inform the national and EU legal and policy framework on climate change adaptation and water resources management. By developing relevant monitoring and forecasting models and tools and engaging stakeholders through actionable science and knowledge networks, EUNOMIA will demonstrate the value-added proposal of sustainable groundwater policies across two living labs that are representative of water- and climate change-related challenges across Spain and Europe, give transformational change momentum, and contribute to the objectives of the EU Water Framework Directive and Climate Adaptation Strategy. Moreover, we will inform and support transformational change in two living labs, while igniting transformations in 3+ inspiration labs, thus contributing to the implementation plan of the EU Mission on climate adaptation and societal transformationwhich aims at supporting 150+ European regions and communities and delivering 75+ large-scale demonstrations of systemic transformations to climate change (EC, 2021OJ, 2021b).

By informing sustainable groundwater management, EUNOMIA will also support the achievement of the EU Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) sustainability goals (second pillar of the CAP). Moreover, by restoring the balance in overexploited aquifers and accumulating water surpluses to use them in times of need and forecasting the value-added potential of the intervention, we will provide evidence on the feasibility of enhancing resilience to socioeconomic and environmental change, thus contributing to the resilience strategy and consultation that is expected to be launched by the EC in February 2025. Research in the framework of EUNOMIA will also contribute to level up the exploitation potential and possibilities of the future multispectral mission of the Spanish-Portuguese Atlantic Constellation (AEE).

EUNOMIA will contribute to SDG 6.5.1 – Degree of Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) implementation (by enhancing IWRM in two living labs in Spain); SDG 06.41 Water exploitation index (WEI) (allowing the calculation of an updated WEI that accounts for groundwater overexploitation, and contributing to decrease the value of the WEI indicator through sustainable groundwater policies); SDG6.b (supporting and strengthening the participation of local communities in improving water management, through knowledge networks and actionable science and tools); SDG 6.4 (substantially increasing water use efficiency, by enhancing resilience and preventing potentially catastrophic economic and environmental losses); SDG6.6 (protecting and restoring water-related ecosystems); SDG 13.1 (strengthening resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters); and SDG 13.3 (improving education, awareness-raising and human and institutional capacity on climate change adaptation). EUNOMIA will also contribute to several major multilateral frameworks underpinning UNs Agenda 2030, including the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR), the Paris Agreement on Climate Change, the Addis Ababa Action Agenda (AAAA) on financing for development, and the 2016 Agenda for Humanity.

Grant PID2024-161881OB-C22 funded by: